The top graph shows constant change in the energy supply over the last one hundred years. The bottom graph shows no change in energy supply over the next 20+ years.

“While the Nation’s energy history is one of large-scale change as new forms of energy were developed,” the DOE writes, “the outlook for the next couple of decades (assuming current laws, regulations, and policies) is for continued reliance on fossil fuels (with coal growing faster than liquid fuels and natural gas), modest growth in hydroelectric power and nuclear electric power; and a doubling of non-hydroelectric renewable energy by 2030.”

Let’s paraphrase: even though the history of the nation’s energy usage shows constant change, we’re predicting no further change. I guess when you’ve been burned by past forecasts, you get a little gunshy. Still, is it really the most credible scenario that almost nothing would change in our nation’s energy mix?