Document: Advances in Photovoltaics R&D: An Overview [Downloadable PDF]
Authors: L.L. Kazmerski (Larry Kazmerski)
Date: 1981
Notes: Reprinted from the Proceedings of the 16th Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference, Vol. 2. NY: ASME.
Task Number: 1090.00
Abstract: A summary status of the advanced photovoltaics research and development is presented. These technologies cover two broad areas: (1) Thin-film intermediate efficiency (>10%) solar cells for flat plate applications, and (2) Single-crystal, high-efficieny (>30%) solar cells for concentrators. Major progress is highlighted for polycrystalline and amorphous silicon, cadmium sulfide, gallium arsenide, emerging materials, and spectrum-splitting and multiple junction concentrators.

Inventing Green Thoughts: There are two key things to note here. First, the SERI scientists were trying to push solar cell costs down to between 14 and 40 cents a watt (!), based on 1980 dollars. Second, they thought they could get there by the year 2000.

“Several significant advances in solar cell R&D have occurred over the past few years,” Kazmerski writes. “Those solar cell technologies that are expected to meet the long-term national goals (i.e., $0.14-0.40/peak-watt, based upon 1980 dollars, in the 1990-2000 time-frame) have demonstrated progress both in interediate efficiency (>10%) thin-film device, and the very-high efficiency (aimed at greater than 30%) concentrator areas.”

Turns out, they were just a bit off. The Solarbuzz retail price per peak watt survey has found prices varying between $4.56 and $4.88 over the last few years. Sure, some companies can make modules for less, but they are merely aiming for a buck or two a watt, not 14 cents!

It goes to show how little scientists really knew about the photovoltaic materials that they were working with.

Kazmerski cites a paper by Larry Magid on the U.S. National Photovoltaic Program in which Magid asserts that photovoltaics would become cost effective in the southwest by 1986.

“A key element in this program is the expectation that photovoltaic residences will begin to be cost effective within the Southwestern United States when modules are priced at 70 cents/peak watt and the total installed system costs from $1.6 to $2.20 per peak watt (in 1980 dollars),” Magid writes. “The program anticipates this occurring in 1986.”

SERI engineers were overly optimistic about photovoltaics’ potential to be cost competitive in the near term. Even if the Reagan administration had kept up or even increased R&D spend, it seems impossible in retrospect that prices could have dropped as much as they anticipated by 1986 or 1990 or 2000.

One key impact from this excessive optimism is that they could have privileged exotic technologies over plain old silicon hoping to get a big cost breakthrough. Silicon-advocate and long-time solar researcher, Georgia Tech’s (and Suniva’s) Ajeet Rohatgi put it best here on Inventing Green.

This is very interesting. This is good or bad for silicon. The good part is that we know silicon material very well. We know all the properties of silicon. But this sometimes ends up being a disadvantage for silicon because we know too much about it. We are not willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. If you look at where a lot of the investment is going, people will talk about 2% organic cells and say some day they will be 10-15%. Because people don’t know about those materials they are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

We see evidence of the home run mindset in the paper. Kazmerski doesn’t even mention the use of monocrystalline silicon, which is what Rohatgi’s company uses.

Ignoring the technologies that are actually closest to commercialization could end up being a general problem for those advocating that true breakthroughs are needed to push solar into a major component of the power mix. Instead of focusing on simple incremental technical advances and capturing scaling efficiencies for established technologies, they might direct funds to higher risk enterprises.

It’s possible that SERI’s approach makes sense, but only if it’s pared with realistic goals and outcomes.

Oh, and Larry Mazerski is still a leader in PV research. He stayed at SERI through the bad years and through the 90s after it became NREL. In fact, he now heads up the National Center for Photovoltaics. I’ll be trying to get a hold of him soon to talk about those early years.

Advances in Photovoltaics R&D – An Overview – 1981