One of the most optimistic predictions came from Thornton Bradshaw, president of Atlantic Richfield, who thought that the U.S. could reduce its dependence on foreign oil from 18% of total energy consumption now “to perhaps as low as 15% by 1980 and possibly 10% to 13% by 1985.” Most other speakers, including Sawhill, guessed that the U.S. would be importing 25% of its oil eleven years from now, v. about one third early this year.
In a TIME article entitled, “Project Realism,” a play on Nixon’s half-hearted Project Independence, we find these forecast gems. Thornton Bradshaw is admirably close to the money about U.S. oil imports as a percentage of U.S. energy consumption. In fact, in 1985, oil imports represented 14% of total consumption which is close to his range.
As for the other guys, 11 years after they made their prediction, the U.S. was dependent on imports for 27% of its petroleum needs, so they were pretty close, too. It’s hard to know whether they banked on the brief Alaskan oil boom, which kept down U.S. oil imports until the late 80s, or were just lucky.
By 1990, we were importing 42% of our oil. Now, that number is 60%.
[Source: Time Magazine]
I had no idea that our oil dependance had increased so much over the past twenty years. Clearly it is in our best interest to find ways to lower our oil dependence.