Archive for July, 2009
SERI Archive: 1979 Wind Energy Promotional Film
In the late 70s, Denis Hayes, then director of the Solar Energy Research Institute, was pushing hard to market solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources. Under his direction, SERI produced all kinds of people-friendly outreach documents as well as some films. I haven’t been able to track down many of them, but this one [...]
1974 Forecast: Oil Imports Drop to 10-13% of U.S. Energy by 1985
One of the most optimistic predictions came from Thornton Bradshaw, president of Atlantic Richfield, who thought that the U.S. could reduce its dependence on foreign oil from 18% of total energy consumption now “to perhaps as low as 15% by 1980 and possibly 10% to 13% by 1985.” Most other speakers, including Sawhill, guessed that [...]
1972 Forecast: Americans Will Use 192 Quads of Energy in 2000
In 1972, the U.S. Department of the Interior projected that Americans would use 116.6 quads (1015 BTUs) of energy in 1985 and 191.9 quads of energy in the year 2000.
In 1975, the USDI revised its estimates downward to 103.5 quads in 1985 and 163.4 quads in 2000.
The reality? Americans used 76.5 quads of energy in [...]
1976 Forecast: Renewables Will Supply 30% of U.S. Energy by 2000
In 1976, Amory Lovins published an incredibly famous and (over)cited paper in the journal Foreign Affairs in which he posited two future energy paths. The hard path called for crazy amounts of energy demand growth, satisfied by new nuclear and coal plants.
The soft path, heavy on small-scale renewables and efficiency, is illustrated above. While not [...]
Fusion by 1958? A slightly optimistic goal.
This is a rather incredible peak into the modes of thinking that atomic scientists were comfortable with. In it, AEC chairman (he of the “too cheap to meter” comment) asks Alvin Weinberg, director of Oak Ridge National Laboratory to try and get some kind of fusion demo ready for a UN conference on atomic energy.
“We [...]
1971 Forecast: Nuclear Will Provide 60% of the World’s Electricity by Late 90s
“Spinrad predicted that by the late 1990s almost 90% of new electrical generating capacity everywhere except in Africa will be nuclear, and that fission will supply over 60% of the world’s electricity generation.”
— Vaclav Smil in Energy at the Crossroads, referencing Spinrad’s report, “The role of nuclear power in meeting world energy needs” in Environmental [...]
1975 Forecast: 20% of New Buildings in 2000 Will Be Solar Equipped
“Solar Heating and Cooling will be used for supplementary energy in the new-building market, particularly multiple-family dwellings. Life-cycle costs will become comparable with fossil fuels in the 1985 time period, and it is expected that 20% of all new buildings in the year 2000 will be equipped with supplementary solar power systems.”
— American Association of [...]
1989 Forecast: 1 GW of Dutch Wind Power by 2000
“[T]he Netherlands established an Integral Wind Energy Program in 1986. Program activities are now designed to encourage installation of 150 MW of wind-energy capacity by 1991 and 1000 MW by 2000.”
— Source: Solar Energy Research Institute, Wind Energy Technical Information Guide, 1989
In this case, they weren’t so far off. The Netherlands reached 1,000 megawatts of [...]
1925 Forecast: Gasoline Depletion Within 10-20 Years
“Within the lifetime of most of the present drivers of automobiles there will be no more gasoline. It is a serious thing to contemplate, particularly from the standpoint of the manufacturer. Estimates based on the most complete data now available place the end of our gasoline supply between ten and twenty years, with the odds [...]
The Forecast Project: How wrong have we been about energy and technology?
Perhaps the most famous forecast in energy history is that atomic power would be “too cheap to meter.”
On September 16, 1954, Lewis Strauss, head of the Atomic Energy Commission, told a group of science writers, “Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter,” thanks to The Friendly Atom.
Was he serious? [...]
Inventing Green by Alexis Madrigal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
